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Discuss the yellow metal, including current and future movements.

TOPIC: Is gold over- or underpriced?

Is gold over- or underpriced? 1 year, 6 months ago #1

Posts:3
Community Newcomer
Would you still buy gold at this price? What´s your midterm thinking on that?

Re: Is gold over- or underpriced? 1 year, 6 months ago #2

Posts:62
Moderator
Here are my honest views on gold:

Short-term: Anybody's guess, but essentially dependant on your views of the equity markets. If you think there's a chance of a big crash in the markets, that's where gold will shine, I even think possibly more than Treasury bonds, based on how low yields are on those already. Personally, I don't see this happening, so I think short term, it won't break $2000, but I have been wrong before, especially if a big financial ends up going under due to the European crisis and markets react harshly.

Mid-term: Possibly more opportunity here. Really it depends on the monetary side. With all the excess liquidity from central banks around the world, if it ends up sparking inflation, gold will benefit, at least nominally compared to stocks. My own view is that there will still be better ways to play the inflation view, including industrial commodities like copper and oil, and even shorting Treasuries if you believe debt markets will react here.

Long Term I am definitely not a fan of gold long term. It is not a good investment and has almost never managed to outperform stocks over a long enough horizon (+15 years). At the end of the day, it has a lower risk premium attached and doesn't generate cash flow. Gold miners might be a better bet if you believe in the long run gold story.

LongWave, what are your thoughts?
The following user(s) said Thank You: LongWave, peter.lugten

Re: Is gold over- or underpriced? 1 year, 6 months ago #3

Posts:3
Community Newcomer
Thanks for your thoughts! Agree, I am most bullish mid term.

Re: Is gold over- or underpriced? 1 year, 5 months ago #4

Posts:1
Community Newcomer
overpriced

Re: Is gold over- or underpriced? 1 year, 5 months ago #5

Posts:62
Moderator
Mzhang, do you think it's still overpriced since falling from the high of 1900 since mid-August?

Re: Is gold over- or underpriced? 1 year, 4 months ago #6

Posts:3
Community Newcomer
Gold is definitely a bubble that is about to burst. Short term, it might do well as haven from all of the volatility in Europe, but I expect gold hit pre 2007 lows within the next two years.
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