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Welcome,
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just me... Once a president is elected in the US this November then I may be a buyer of gold, world economy is giving weak signs...there is weakness in China, Finland, Australia, and of course Europe PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain). United States Housing is still in for some blues and we still have some of our own economy problems...
Usually presidential elections will mean an UP market in that election year, but I say once all the hype is done, I'm suspect of the bears also, if there is strong pressure from the middle east on nuclear arms, and a conflict emerges, then this would be another factor that will push up gold and commodities... I'm a buyer on gold, at least until the world markets are out of thier financial duress... long on gold .02, mf |
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Last Edit: 11 months, 1 week ago by manualfix. Reason: wrong word
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CURRENTLY OVERPRICED
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Adding gold would not be a good investment for time being even if the global economy continues to slow down. The reason is that even with the growth sluggishness, the inflations are coming down across the globe. The real assets like Gold and commodities,RE,Precious Metals and Gold carry grater appeal when
1-Credit Risks are Increasing. 2-Inflation outlook is bullish. Gold has already reacted enough to both in past three years when none of above has actually happened .Neither US has so far defaulted on its debt nor EMU have broken apart. Secondly,the new administration would have to decide on whether to extend Tax Cuts or not? Given the already high debt, the more anticipated result would be some sort of tightening which would keep a check on inflation.So only attraction left in gold is from valuation perspective. Gold below 1600 USD is good buy given gold prices have remained fairly sticky throughout the history. Secondly, Gold and Trade weighted USD (DXY) have historically shown a negative correlation. Which makes Gold as a return enhancers for people Trading in FX. And lastly, long as Hedge Funds dont return to Gold, I really dont see it booming again. |
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Gold is really in my opinion a hedge against the poorly performing dollar and market uncertainty. As long as these problems hold gold is going to do very well. At the present time there is no reason to remotely expect that this will change soon with the debt burden in the US and Europe. Currency devaluation or so-called quantitative easing is supporting the gold price. I have held gold miners in the past but the investment did not do well at all whereas I have had much more success holding the GLD ETF. There seem to be too many labor and other problems associated with the miners.
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Gold is overpriced, way overpriced. Just not in the short term. Gold has skyrocketed due to the recession, which means when the economy recovers, gold investors will lose money.
For the next 2 years I'd say the price is fair. |
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I would make the suggest that gold is a little over priced. The reasoning behind my suggestion is back way back when gold prices jumped a small but descent amount all the mines, companies and everybody in general sold off their reserves. Therefore causing the price to drop, then they all started to stock up on gold again. Therefore causing the demand to go sky high and the price to shoot up. Now everybody is holding out entail the price goes higher and gold is being used more and more for electronics and new upcoming technology.
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The following user(s) said Thank You: Илья.Котельников2
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